16 August 2022

Kenya: With the outcome very close, more than half of the members of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission not endorsing the results and claims to victory having been made by Odinga’s side, William Ruto – officially declared president yesterday Monday – “will almost certainly have to defend his win in court”. Results have been annulled once before (in 2017), so the courts have proven that they can do it. If Ruto wins in court, he’ll have to set out to come true on his promises. Simultaneously with the presidential elections, 47 governors were also elected – amongst them several female governors – “important strides in women’s political representation”.

Kenya: William Ruto – who has just been declared the winner of the presidential elections – was up against the “embodiments of dynastic politics and entitlement”, Raila Odinga, the son of Kenya’s first vice- president, having been supported by Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of the country’s first president – “elbowed out by the establishment (…) he has somersaulted back by appealing directly to the masses, his original constituency”. His “hustler nation” movement was successful because of “mass unemployment, poverty, inequalities and state excesses such as extrajudicial executions and runaway corruption”. Despite all that, Ruto is a pure product of Kenya’s political system – which is “notorious for a lack of scruples (…) and disdainful of the poor”. So let us see what will change under his presidency.

Nigeria: The increase in attacks against churches needs to be seen before the background of a generally worsening security situation. The author thinks that the three main drivers are “the rise of jihadism, long standing pastoral conflicts and related criminality”. After a short analysis of these three factors, he makes recommendations how to improve security, ranging from encouraging church goers to be vigilant, vulnerability/threat assessments by church authorities, installation of surveillance infrastructure, improving policing to broader socio-economic measures like tackling “poverty, social inequality, and gross failure of governance”.

Ethiopia/Wheat/Ukraine: A UN ship – the MV Brave Commander – has left the Black Sea port Pivdennyi with 23,000 tonnes of wheat for Ethiopia. WFP, the USAID and private donors have financed the wheat.
BBC Africa Live 16 August 2022. 13:18

Sierra Leone: Prominent opposition figure and government critic Hassan Dumbuya (aka Evangelist Samson), member of the All People’s Congress was killed when police “exchanged gunfire with a neighbourhood group” “in the hideout of alleged suspects behind last week’s violent protests.” This police version of Dumbuya’s death has been contested. It all comes a few days after President Bio stated that “the protests were an attempt to overthrow his government”. Are authorities overreacting? Was this an extrajudicial killing?
BBC Africa Live 16 August 2022. 18:55

15 August 2022

Nigeria: According to the author, the five priority areas to combat rising insecurity are 1) to reform (decentralise) the national security architecture; 2) to reclaim the ungoverned, undergoverned, and poorly governed spaces which can easily be occupied and ‘governed’ by violent non-state actors – reclaiming these spaces would entail creating a “pragmatic community-oriented security governance mechanism” including vigilantes and volunteers; 3) to address the drivers of insecurity: a development strategy is necessary, illiteracy, poverty, unemployment and inequality need to be addressed; 4) to depoliticise identity faultlines i.e. putting a stop to “sectionalist, ethnic, clannish or religious politicking”; and 5) to reposition the counter-terrorism/banditry drive: reinvigorate the government response by, amongst others, promoting the welfare of the troops and by using improved tactics and logistics. However, the chances of all that succeeding seem slim if the author’s summarizing the situation is not exaggerated, requiring the “reinventing a comatose state system and government, which have become mired in systemic inertia and abuse, resulting in a near fiasco of the national security”.

Nigeria: At 19.64%, inflation is at its highest since 2005. Food inflation, at 22.02%, is even higher.
BBC Africa Live 15 August 2022. 18:44

City Development & the Informal Sector: “(V)isions of city modernisation tend to heavily marginalise and antagonise the informal sector in their design and execution”, informal settlements may be destroyed by the authorities and informal activities like hawking displaced from central business districts. But such an approach may prove disastrous, if only for the substantial employment effect of the informal sector. The authors of the article argue that the informal sector should rather be considered as “a potential site for innovation and solutions”, not an obstacle to progress. Integrating informal workers into the mainstream economy would be the best solution – as was done in Cairo where informal waste collectors/recyclers, locally called “Zabbaleen”, were integrated into the city’s formal waste management system.

Egypt/Mali: Cairo has announced the suspension of its participation in Minusma, the UN mission in Mali, due to security concerns for its troops there. Of the around 1,000 Egyptian soldiers mainly providing logistical support for Minusma, 7 have been killed this year.
BBC Africa Live 15 August 2022. 9:02

Burkina Faso: The Observatory of Human Dignity and the Collective Against Immunity and Stigmatisation of Communities accuse the army of kidnappings and summary executions, killing more than 40, most of them Fulani (Peulh) in Taffago (near Tougouri, Centre-North region).
BBC Africa Live 15 August 2022. 8:18

Kenya (15/8/2022 at 17h37): William Ruto has been declared winner of the presidential elections with 50.5% of votes. But 4 of the 7 electoral commission members “refused to endorse the result, saying it was ‘opaque’.” There were “scuffles and allegations of vote-rigging”.