18 December 2022
Ethiopia: With Oromo Liberation Army raids, government ruling out negotiations and reinforcing troops and conducting drone strikes, Amhara militias (“Fano”) active, the crisis is coming to a head: In the Oromia region, conflict is escalating, ethnic tensions are exploding. “The government-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (HRC) says that "hundreds" of people have been killed in a "gruesome manner" in the past five months in Oromia, while a UN agency says almost a million people have been forced from their homes.” The article lists some of the atrocities. Though the Oromo Liberation Army has never clarified what it means when it advocates self-determination for Oromia, there is a fear that they are after secession – since the Oromo are the country’s largest group, this would no doubt mean the break-up of multi-ethnic Ethiopia. But the strength of the OLA must not be overestimated – that they are using guerrilla tactics, hit-and-run operations, kidnappings for ransom seems to reveal their relative weakness. But they are strong enough to commit atrocities – as are the government with its troops and drones and the Amhara militias. Peace negotiations are clearly necessary.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63710783
Tunisia: After the “fiasco” of the legislative elections – only 8.8% of eligible voters actually cast their votes yesterday Saturday – the head of the National Salvation Front, the main opposition coalition, called for mass protests and the resignation of President Kaïs Saïed – who was considered an “illegitimate president” from now on.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64015596
17 December 2022
Eritrea/Tigray: “Eritrea’s regional policy has largely been influenced by Ethiopia, its much more powerful southerly neighbour.” The TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) has for quite a long time been its main enemy – the TPLF reign in Addis only ended with Abiy’s prime ministership. That Asmara sided with him against Tigray in the war is no big surprise. But Eritrea’s interests go further than combatting Mekelle – Asmara wants anything but a “strong, united Ethiopia” which would risk to dominate it economically, militarily and diplomatically. “Asmara’s best-case scenario is a prolonged, unresolved conflict in Ethiopia in which the presence of Eritrean forces and political support are still required by Addis Ababa.” And that’s what was the case over the last two years. But if Addis and Mekelle really get talking again, then Eritrea might find itself isolated in no time – and back to “the pariah status (it) has occupied for most of the last two decades.” And if peace is restored within Ethiopia, then Addis could also become an enemy of Eritrea once again.
https://theconversation.com/eritrea-is-involved-in-tigray-to-boost-its-stature-why-the-strategy-could-backfire-175591
Ethiopia/Tigray/Eritrea: The Tigray famine – 40% are thought to suffer from extreme lack of food – “is not the result of a natural disaster: it is a famine induced by the closure of the borders of Tigray by Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somali forces, reinforced by militia from Ethiopia’s Amhara and Afar ethnic groups.” When famine struck in the mid-1980s, both the Eritrean and the Tigrayan liberation movements “used a lifeline through Sudan” – and that is in memory of this that Asmara (in its alliance with Ethiopia and Somalia) “fought so hard to sever ties between Tigray and Sudan” from end 2020 onwards. The Eritrean liberation movement had, in fact, also cut supply lines for the Tigrayan liberation movement. And though they finally reconciled and together won against Addis in 1991, that “rift never really healed”. And then there was the disaster of the border war 1998-2000 with Eritrea “outwitted and outgunned (…) militarily (and) outmanoeuvred (…) diplomatically in the years following the conflict.”
https://theconversation.com/famine-in-ethiopia-the-roots-lie-in-eritreas-long-running-feud-with-tigrayans-181866
Tigray/Ethiopia: Tigray’s “heritage sites have been deliberately targeted” in the war. Bombing and destroying churches means attacking sacred spaces – sacred more in a cultural than a religious sense: “Looting and attacking them is a grave dishonouring of cultural values.” According to the article’s author’s network of informers in Tigray, hundreds of sacred sites have been affected. “Most of the historical artefacts (Ethiopia) is famous for are originally from today’s Tigray”, e.g., the Aksumite Monuments. The Battle of Adwa, by the way, where Ethiopians fought off the Italian colonisers, was in Tigray.
https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-war-in-tigray-risks-wiping-out-centuries-of-the-worlds-history-179829