20 April 2022

Somalia: After 15 years of the AU mission to Somalia AMISOM, the country faces “a resurgence of Al-Shabaab activities, a weak national security sector, dysfunctional politics and a protracted electoral crisis”. Now AMISOM has been replaced by ATMIS – which is to “build the capacity of Somalia’s security and governing institutions for a full handover in December 2024” – a momentous task.

Chad: “(T)he Zaghawa want to continue their grip on Chad, no matter what the president’s first name is”. The Zagawa are the clan to which the Débys belong. Some of them have become incredibly rich under Idriss Déby. And there is no sign of real change, no political will to change. It is by no means clear whether the transition calendar will hold and elections will take place this year.

Kenya: According to the head of the national police service, a medical examination has established that almost 2,000 police officers are mentally unfit to do their job. Discharging some of them has started – but is difficult “because of the elaborate procedures involved”.

19 April 2022

Nigeria: When banditry emerged in the late 2000s, it was an isolated rural phenomenon. “In the early 2010s, bandits were largely roving brigands that marauded communities in the hinterlands. They engaged in cattle rustling, high-way and market routes robbery, localised village raids and mercenary militancy.” But by the late 2010s, they had evolved into “into organised tribes of semi-sedentary criminals that maintained pockets of underworld fiefdoms” and by now, there seems to be “a nexus of banditry, arms, drugs and terrorism”. Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Niger, Sokoto, Zamfara, are the most concerned states. “(T)hey appear to be buoyed by their apparent criminal impunity in the context of a receding state.” The article accuses the government of complacency and lethargy in dealing with this banditry. It should instead consider this “a situation of warfare”. A proactive, more holistic and better coordinated approach is necessary.

Terrorism & military expenditure: Of course: the effect of terrorism on economic growth is negative. But can military expenditure really compensate (some of) the negative effects of terrorism on the economy?