24 April 2023

Ethiopia: Negotiations between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the federal government are to start tomorrow Tuesday. Nothing more is known about the format or the mediators of the talks. The OLA had been designated a “terrorist organisation” by Addis in May 2021. During the Tigray war, the OLA and the TPLF had agreed an alliance.
BBC Africa Live 24 April 2023. 5:36

Sudan/No Presence of Wagner mercenaries: There is no evidence for the presence of Wagner fighters in the country (though some seem to have been there up to 2020 or 2021). As for economic interests, M Invest and its subsidiary Meroe Gold are allegedly fronts for the gold activities of Wagner Group in Sudan.

Chad: By expelling the German ambassador for “disrespectful behaviour and disregard for diplomatic protocol”, N’Djamena most likely sent a warning to France and other “partners” that it is fed-up with their criticism. The French and also the US ambassador being untouchable (Chad would not survive without their countries’ support), Germany was chosen as the easiest target.

23rd April 2023

Zimbabwe/USA: Harare is known to be extremely critical of Washington (and vice versa). But historically, the relationship between the US and Zimbabwe/its ruling party Zanu-PF has been much more nuanced. The article also tells about the positive, supportive relations. Nowadays, Emmerson Mnangagwa uses US (and European) sanctions for mobilising pan-African support and for “discrediting its leading opponent, Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens Coalition for Change, as a ‘US pawn’.”

Egypt/Sudan: People can move freely between the two countries. Over the last few years, the number of Sudanese in Egypt has increased substantially and is thought to be as high as 5 million. Al-Sisi’s regime is close to the Sudanese army. At the same time, the Rapid Support Forces are supported by the UAE – who are one of Cairo’s main financial backers. So, al-Sisi has avoided to take a clear stand, saying he wants “stability and security” for Egypt’s southern neighbour. This most likely means that – just like in Cairo under al-Sisi – if the latter has his say, there will not be a transition to democracy in Khartoum.